NBA games

ATL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
115–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL21353227115
NO2521242898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NO
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 33 30 7 4
Vit Krejci 27 21 1 0
Jalen Johnson S 34 18 11 9
Dyson Daniels S 31 14 8 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 36 10 5 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 8 3 4
Luke Kennard 24 8 0 3
Mouhamed Gueye 27 3 6 0
Caleb Houstan 2 3 1 0
Asa Newell 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derik Queen S 32 20 9 3
Trey Murphy III S 31 19 9 4
Saddiq Bey S 28 18 11 5
Jeremiah Fears S 31 11 4 4
Bryce McGowens 20 9 1 0
Jose Alvarado 17 8 1 1
Jordan Hawkins 19 5 2 0
Micah Peavy S 27 4 3 1
Yves Missi 21 2 3 2
Kevon Looney 14 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Layup (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
15%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
12%
4 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
5 Derik Queen NO
11%
6 Herbert Jones NO
10%
7 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Jacob Toppin ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.0 10.9 7.7
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.8 5.9 3.5
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.1 3.9 4.2
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.4 5.9 3.5
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 18.5 4.3 2.6
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.3 6.3 3.3
7 Derik Queen NO 17.5 7.8 5.5
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.7 3.6 2.3
9 Saddiq Bey NO 12.0 4.7 2.0
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.8 6.1 6.8
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 3.7 2.5
12 Vit Krejci ATL 10.2 2.7 1.9
13 Jose Alvarado NO 10.1 3.2 3.4
14 Luke Kennard ATL 8.7 2.4 2.1
15 Yves Missi NO 6.1 4.5 1.3
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.8 1.4
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.9 2.0 1.2
18 Micah Peavy NO 4.8 2.5 1.0
19 Asa Newell ATL 4.4 2.1 0.6
20 Jacob Toppin ATL 4.1 1.1 0.8
21 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.1 1.4 0.7
22 Kevon Looney NO 3.8 3.5 1.3
23 Bryce McGowens NO 3.0 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.