NBA games

NY @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
121–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY29372728121
ORL31333435133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ORL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 33 3 11
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 24 8 3
Mikal Bridges S 38 18 7 2
Jordan Clarkson 34 15 2 5
Josh Hart 29 12 5 2
Tyler Kolek 17 8 1 1
Mitchell Robinson S 17 6 3 0
Guerschon Yabusele 14 4 1 0
Ariel Hukporti 3 1 2 0
Mohamed Diawara 10 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 37 6 7
Desmond Bane S 32 27 3 5
Jalen Suggs S 32 26 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 11 4 1
Anthony Black 29 11 1 4
Jonathan Isaac 16 6 7 0
Goga Bitadze 19 6 7 3
Jett Howard 8 5 0 0
Tristan da Silva S 28 4 3 4
Jase Richardson 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Landry Shamet NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.7 6.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.1 6.8 4.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.4 10.8 4.2
4 Desmond Bane ORL 19.9 4.6 5.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.0 3.9 4.9
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.0 7.2 2.7
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.9 4.1 5.6
8 Josh Hart NY 12.7 6.1 4.6
9 Anthony Black ORL 12.7 3.5 3.1
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.1 4.7 1.6
11 Landry Shamet NY 10.1 2.4 1.4
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.0 2.4 1.7
13 Miles McBride NY 8.9 2.6 2.0
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 4.8 1.1
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.8 3.8 0.7
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.4 7.3 0.7
17 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.6 0.9
18 Jase Richardson ORL 3.6 1.3 1.3
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.5 2.0 0.6
20 Noah Penda ORL 3.0 2.0 0.6
21 Tyus Jones ORL 2.9 1.4 1.3
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.6 1.2 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.1 0.5 0.8
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.0 0.8 0.3
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.5 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.