NBA games

LAC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
131–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC38243435131
CHA30272534116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CHA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 35 55 3 7
Ivica Zubac S 30 18 9 6
Brook Lopez 15 11 1 1
Kobe Sanders S 30 11 1 2
John Collins S 26 10 7 0
Nicolas Batum 19 9 3 0
Cam Christie 21 8 9 0
Kris Dunn S 27 6 2 6
Chris Paul 23 3 4 8
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 3 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 34 26 1 1
Brandon Miller S 26 21 1 3
Miles Bridges S 30 19 3 2
Collin Sexton 23 18 3 4
LaMelo Ball S 25 18 4 7
Moussa Diabate 25 6 7 1
Liam McNeeley 18 3 6 1
Sion James 21 3 2 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 11 2 2 1
Mason Plumlee 12 0 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 1-foot dunk (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Sion James CHA
7%
10 John Collins LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
18%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 29.0 6.4 8.8
2 Miles Bridges CHA 24.2 6.6 4.4
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.0 6.7 9.6
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.6 6.9 4.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.4 11.5 2.4
6 Collin Sexton CHA 16.0 2.7 5.2
7 Brandon Miller CHA 14.9 1.8 4.0
8 John Collins LAC 12.6 4.1 1.3
9 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 11.0 7.5 1.0
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.3 9.4 1.6
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.2 3.0 3.4
12 Kris Dunn LAC 8.9 2.8 3.6
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.2 2.1 1.6
14 Sion James CHA 8.2 3.4 1.7
15 Brook Lopez LAC 6.1 2.0 0.9
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.6 2.8 1.1
17 Cam Christie LAC 5.2 1.8 0.9
18 Chris Paul LAC 4.7 1.9 3.3
19 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.5 2.1 0.8
20 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.4 2.9 0.9
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 2.7 1.0
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 3.8 1.4 1.1
23 Drew Peterson CHA 3.2 1.7 0.7
24 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 2.8 1.2 0.5
25 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.