NBA games

ATL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
126–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34263234126
SA28462140135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home SA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 38 4 5
Jalen Johnson S 38 26 12 7
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 16 5 1
Onyeka Okongwu 25 15 7 5
Luke Kennard 16 10 3 3
Dyson Daniels S 31 8 6 5
Keaton Wallace 12 6 0 2
Vit Krejci 30 5 0 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 2 2 1
Mouhamed Gueye 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 31 26 5 9
Keldon Johnson 32 25 7 2
Julian Champagnie S 31 20 4 5
Harrison Barnes S 34 16 5 2
Devin Vassell S 33 15 5 3
David Jones Garcia 19 12 5 6
Kelly Olynyk 13 8 2 0
Jeremy Sochan 22 8 5 5
Luke Kornet S 23 5 3 2
Carter Bryant 2 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
11%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
9%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
5 Luke Kornet SA
8%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.0 3.9 6.8
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.4 10.2 7.5
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.4 3.7 3.9
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.9 6.1 3.2
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.3 6.4 2.9
6 Harrison Barnes SA 13.8 3.6 2.1
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.0 3.5 2.0
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.0 3.6 2.4
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.9 6.2 6.8
10 Keldon Johnson SA 11.6 6.0 1.9
11 Vit Krejci ATL 10.4 2.8 1.9
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.3 3.4 1.4
13 Luke Kornet SA 9.8 6.5 1.6
14 Luke Kennard ATL 8.2 2.3 1.9
15 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.7 2.9 1.5
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.3 2.2 3.4
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 4.1 1.3
18 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.8 2.6 2.7
19 David Jones Garcia SA 4.8 2.1 1.7
20 Asa Newell ATL 4.7 2.2 0.6
21 Lindy Waters III SA 4.5 1.6 0.9
22 Jacob Toppin ATL 3.8 1.0 0.8
23 Carter Bryant SA 3.7 1.7 0.7
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.