NBA games

PHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI3322222917123
MIL203724258114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIL
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 47 54 5 9
Paul George S 25 21 5 3
Quentin Grimes 39 14 4 4
VJ Edgecombe S 38 12 10 3
Jared McCain 13 8 2 0
Justin Edwards S 31 7 4 3
Andre Drummond S 18 3 8 1
Dominick Barlow 29 2 6 3
Jabari Walker 11 2 2 1
Trendon Watford 14 0 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 40 32 6 14
Bobby Portis S 28 19 8 0
Kyle Kuzma S 38 17 3 4
Myles Turner S 28 14 10 1
Gary Trent Jr. 38 11 0 2
AJ Green S 36 9 6 0
Cole Anthony 21 5 4 7
Jericho Sims 16 4 3 0
Gary Harris 20 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Paul George makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
18%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
13%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
5 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
6 Myles Turner MIL
9%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
9%
8 Justin Edwards PHI
9%
9 AJ Green MIL
9%
10 Quentin Grimes PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
9%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.8 4.9 7.6
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.8 3.9 5.0
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.5 4.1 6.2
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.2 4.4 1.8
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.9 5.7 4.1
6 Myles Turner MIL 13.0 5.7 1.8
7 Andre Drummond PHI 10.8 9.7 1.2
8 Trendon Watford PHI 10.2 4.4 3.5
9 AJ Green MIL 10.0 2.6 2.2
10 Bobby Portis MIL 9.6 4.9 1.6
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.3 1.8 1.6
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.8 5.6 1.7
13 Cole Anthony MIL 7.6 3.2 4.8
14 Justin Edwards PHI 6.6 2.3 1.4
15 Jabari Walker PHI 4.4 3.0 0.9
16 Gary Harris MIL 3.1 1.2 0.8
17 Mark Sears MIL 3.0 0.7 0.5
18 Johni Broome PHI 2.9 1.9 0.3
19 Jared McCain PHI 2.7 1.3 0.8
20 Eric Gordon PHI 2.5 0.5 0.4
21 Jericho Sims MIL 2.2 2.0 0.7
22 Amir Coffey MIL 2.2 1.2 0.4
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 1.1 0.3
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.