NBA games

SAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
96–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2225292096
MEM35403824137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MEM
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 26 26 2 2
Maxime Raynaud 21 12 3 1
Keegan Murray 33 11 3 1
Russell Westbrook S 21 11 7 4
Drew Eubanks S 26 9 5 0
Nique Clifford 19 8 2 3
DeMar DeRozan S 15 7 0 2
Keon Ellis 16 5 1 1
Dennis Schroder 25 3 2 6
Precious Achiuwa S 24 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 28 29 5 3
Jock Landale 15 21 6 0
Cedric Coward S 25 19 4 4
Zach Edey S 25 16 4 0
Jaylen Wells S 19 13 1 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 18 11 1 1
Cam Spencer 24 7 2 6
Jahmai Mashack 6 6 2 0
GG Jackson 18 6 9 1
Vince Williams Jr. S 24 4 5 15

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
2 Jaylen Wells MEM
13%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
13%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
13%
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
6 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
7 Drew Eubanks SAC
12%
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
10%
9 Dennis Schroder SAC
0%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 19.6 4.1 3.3
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.5 3.5 3.2
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 7.7 7.8
4 Cedric Coward MEM 14.7 7.4 3.7
5 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.6 4.1 5.5
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.6 6.3 2.8
7 Malik Monk SAC 12.0 2.7 2.1
8 Jock Landale MEM 11.3 5.5 2.1
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.1 3.7 1.7
10 Cam Spencer MEM 9.7 2.2 2.8
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.6 4.4 3.7
12 Drew Eubanks SAC 8.2 3.6 0.9
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.2 2.9 2.3
14 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.6 5.1 1.0
15 Keon Ellis SAC 6.1 2.1 1.0
16 Nique Clifford SAC 5.8 2.6 1.8
17 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.2 3.6 0.9
18 Dario Saric SAC 4.2 1.5 0.5
19 GG Jackson MEM 4.2 1.5 0.5
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.8 2.5 0.8
21 John Konchar MEM 3.4 2.3 1.1
22 Devin Carter SAC 2.4 1.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.