NBA games

LAC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24252725101
ORL30313236129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home ORL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 31 31 5 8
Ivica Zubac S 32 14 19 0
Kobe Brown 16 9 3 1
John Collins S 25 9 4 0
Cam Christie 12 6 1 0
Kobe Sanders S 26 6 2 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 11 6 1 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 6 1 3
Chris Paul 23 4 2 4
Kris Dunn S 25 4 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 26 23 3 7
Franz Wagner S 30 20 6 3
Tristan da Silva S 30 17 8 1
Desmond Bane S 31 15 7 5
Anthony Black 29 12 4 4
Goga Bitadze 16 10 6 3
Jonathan Isaac 16 9 7 1
Jett Howard 15 8 1 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 7 7 6
Jamal Cain 5 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 John Collins LAC
8%
9 Kobe Sanders LAC
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 27.8 6.2 7.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.9 6.6 4.6
3 Desmond Bane ORL 18.3 4.4 5.5
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.8 7.3 2.3
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.7 11.3 2.0
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.9 4.0 5.4
7 Anthony Black ORL 12.9 3.5 3.1
8 John Collins LAC 12.4 4.1 1.2
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.1 4.2 1.7
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.9 2.7 2.8
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.3 2.5 3.0
12 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.2 1.7 1.3
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.7 4.1 0.9
14 Brook Lopez LAC 5.2 1.6 0.8
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 2.7 1.0
16 Jamal Cain ORL 4.9 2.1 0.6
17 Cam Christie LAC 4.4 1.4 0.8
18 Chris Paul LAC 4.1 1.4 3.4
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 3.5 0.6
20 Tyus Jones ORL 3.4 1.3 1.3
21 Jett Howard ORL 2.7 1.1 0.6
22 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.5 2.1 0.4
23 Jase Richardson ORL 2.5 0.8 1.0
24 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 2.2 0.6
25 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 1.3 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.