NBA games

CHI @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
122–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28343624122
POR29292439121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home POR
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 34 27 8 2
Coby White 27 25 1 7
Ayo Dosunmu 23 14 4 1
Isaac Okoro S 26 13 1 0
Matas Buzelis S 19 11 5 4
Josh Giddey S 31 9 5 13
Dalen Terry 17 6 3 5
Patrick Williams 13 5 5 1
Jalen Smith 12 5 1 0
Jevon Carter 11 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 37 33 9 4
Deni Avdija S 38 32 11 11
Donovan Clingan S 34 17 21 4
Toumani Camara S 37 14 5 2
Kris Murray 35 9 6 2
Caleb Love 18 5 3 2
Sidy Cissoko S 22 5 6 0
Javonte Cooke 9 4 1 1
Yang Hansen 8 2 2 1
Duop Reath 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 17-foot jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
9%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
8 Kevin Huerter CHI
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.0 6.8 5.9
2 Josh Giddey CHI 25.7 11.0 9.1
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.7 5.3 2.9
4 Jrue Holiday POR 20.5 4.8 8.5
5 Jerami Grant POR 18.8 3.6 3.3
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.6 2.9 3.7
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.9 6.1 1.7
8 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.5 8.6 3.6
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 16.1 4.5 3.1
10 Toumani Camara POR 14.9 4.8 3.3
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.4 3.4 2.0
12 Jalen Smith CHI 10.1 6.5 1.6
13 Donovan Clingan POR 9.0 8.9 1.3
14 Jevon Carter CHI 8.9 1.8 1.7
15 Caleb Love POR 8.4 2.6 1.9
16 Patrick Williams CHI 7.9 2.8 1.7
17 Kris Murray POR 6.7 3.7 1.5
18 Yang Hansen POR 5.6 2.8 1.1
19 Robert Williams III POR 4.8 3.7 0.8
20 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.7 1.8 1.5
21 Noa Essengue CHI 4.6 1.9 1.0
22 Duop Reath POR 4.4 1.4 0.8
23 Javonte Cooke POR 4.1 1.7 0.8
24 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 2.3 1.7
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.6 0.7
26 Julian Phillips CHI 2.7 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.