NBA games

NY @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
113–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY24283526113
DAL25253526111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DAL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 28 3 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 18 14 6
Josh Hart 30 16 10 5
Mikal Bridges S 35 16 5 6
Miles McBride 22 11 0 2
Landry Shamet S 23 9 3 1
Jordan Clarkson 20 8 4 0
Guerschon Yabusele 17 4 2 1
Mitchell Robinson S 22 3 8 1
Mohamed Diawara 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall 34 23 5 1
D'Angelo Russell 25 23 5 7
Max Christie S 37 15 7 1
Klay Thompson S 27 13 2 2
Jaden Hardy 16 11 1 1
Brandon Williams S 20 9 2 4
Daniel Gafford 25 7 8 2
P.J. Washington S 33 6 10 4
Dereck Lively II S 18 4 10 1
Moussa Cisse 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Landry Shamet · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Landry Shamet makes 2-foot layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Moussa Cisse DAL
9%
6 Brandon Williams DAL
8%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
10 Miles McBride NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
27%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.1 3.9 6.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.8 11.8 3.9
3 Mikal Bridges NY 16.9 4.5 5.0
4 P.J. Washington DAL 16.5 7.6 2.6
5 D'Angelo Russell DAL 14.2 3.2 5.0
6 Naji Marshall DAL 13.8 5.2 2.6
7 Brandon Williams DAL 13.3 3.1 4.1
8 Max Christie DAL 12.5 4.2 3.0
9 Josh Hart NY 11.9 5.9 4.6
10 Landry Shamet NY 10.8 2.7 1.5
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.6 2.3 1.9
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.6 6.4 1.3
13 Miles McBride NY 9.6 3.0 2.4
14 Klay Thompson DAL 9.1 2.5 2.0
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 5.4 5.6 1.6
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.4 1.6 1.0
17 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.3 4.7 0.7
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.2 8.9 0.8
19 Miles Kelly DAL 4.8 1.6 1.3
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.6 2.3 0.6
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.5 0.8
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.9 1.7 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.5 0.7 0.9
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.4 1.1 0.4
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 2.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.