NBA games

SAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
99–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2525193099
OKC27312530113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home OKC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder 32 21 5 3
DeMar DeRozan S 35 17 3 5
Malik Monk 27 16 3 2
Precious Achiuwa S 26 15 9 3
Zach LaVine S 30 8 4 2
Russell Westbrook S 30 7 11 6
Maxime Raynaud 19 7 4 0
Drew Eubanks S 23 6 3 0
Keon Ellis 11 2 3 0
Nique Clifford 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 33 8 3
Chet Holmgren S 31 21 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 33 14 4 1
Ajay Mitchell 29 13 3 6
Cason Wallace S 26 12 2 1
Isaiah Joe 20 7 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 4 12 3
Chris Youngblood 2 3 0 0
Jaylin Williams 10 2 1 1
Branden Carlson 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
15%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
10 Dennis Schroder SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
16%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.7 7.8
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.7 8.7 2.4
3 Zach LaVine SAC 19.4 3.9 3.0
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.1 3.4 2.9
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 17.5 11.4 4.3
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.4 4.4 4.6
7 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.0 6.7 6.7
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.9 3.5 2.0
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.2 3.6 5.2
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.1 2.3 2.1
11 Cason Wallace OKC 10.5 3.2 2.5
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 4.0 1.6
13 Drew Eubanks SAC 7.0 3.0 0.7
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.8 5.3 2.6
15 Alex Caruso OKC 5.6 2.3 2.2
16 Keon Ellis SAC 5.4 1.8 1.0
17 Nique Clifford SAC 5.1 2.8 1.8
18 Precious Achiuwa SAC 4.6 4.1 0.6
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 2.3 1.0
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.0 2.5 0.8
21 Maxime Raynaud SAC 3.4 2.9 0.5
22 Dario Saric SAC 3.3 1.3 0.4
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.1 1.4 0.7
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.9 2.7 0.7
25 Devin Carter SAC 2.1 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.