NBA games

DEN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
125–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN26363528125
NO30282535118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NO
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 34 32 12 3
Nikola Jokic S 34 28 11 12
Jamal Murray S 36 16 0 8
Jonas Valanciunas 16 14 7 0
Cameron Johnson S 32 14 3 5
Bruce Brown 27 12 3 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 7 1 1
Zeke Nnaji S 27 2 4 0
Spencer Jones 11 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derik Queen S 30 30 9 4
Trey Murphy III S 36 23 2 3
Jeremiah Fears S 25 16 3 1
Zion Williamson S 29 14 6 5
Micah Peavy 17 9 3 1
Herbert Jones S 29 9 2 3
Yves Missi 12 7 8 2
Jordan Hawkins 18 6 1 1
Jose Alvarado 19 2 4 2
Saddiq Bey 19 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes two point shot (Derik Queen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
4 Derik Queen NO
9%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Yves Missi NO
8%
7 Kevon Looney NO
7%
8 Saddiq Bey NO
7%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.2 11.8 12.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.7 5.7 6.4
3 Trey Murphy III NO 22.7 6.3 3.8
4 Zion Williamson NO 19.1 6.0 4.8
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.0 3.7 3.2
6 Derik Queen NO 12.2 6.7 3.6
7 Saddiq Bey NO 12.1 4.6 2.0
8 Herbert Jones NO 10.8 3.0 2.8
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.3 2.5 1.7
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 8.9 2.8 1.9
11 Jose Alvarado NO 8.9 2.6 2.6
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.8 4.5 1.2
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.4 4.0 1.4
14 Peyton Watson DEN 7.3 4.3 1.6
15 Yves Missi NO 6.1 4.9 1.2
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 1.8 1.1
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.1 1.5 1.2
18 Micah Peavy NO 3.9 2.1 0.9
19 Bryce McGowens NO 3.6 1.4 0.6
20 Kevon Looney NO 3.1 2.7 0.9
21 Spencer Jones DEN 2.8 1.3 0.8
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.0 0.5
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.