NBA games

WSH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29173627109
MIN34372326120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIN
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 37 23 7 7
CJ McCollum S 31 14 5 4
Khris Middleton S 27 13 6 2
Marvin Bagley III S 31 13 7 3
Cam Whitmore 20 13 6 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 13 4 4
Tre Johnson 17 10 1 0
Tristan Vukcevic 20 7 5 1
Bub Carrington 17 3 1 1
Corey Kispert 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 33 32 10 6
Naz Reid 27 28 5 1
Anthony Edwards S 36 18 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 12 5 6
Mike Conley S 27 10 1 6
Rudy Gobert S 36 9 15 3
Jaylen Clark 26 7 5 0
Rob Dillingham 9 2 4 2
Bones Hyland 10 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyshawn George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Kyshawn George makes two point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
14%
3 Julius Randle MIN
13%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
12%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
10%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
10%
9 Tre Johnson WSH
0%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
33%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 26.8 7.8 7.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.4 5.1 4.4
3 CJ McCollum WSH 17.7 3.5 3.4
4 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 17.0 4.6 3.8
5 Kyshawn George WSH 16.9 5.5 5.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.2 12.0 2.1
7 Naz Reid MIN 13.9 6.2 2.7
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.6 4.6 3.4
9 Khris Middleton WSH 10.4 3.7 2.4
10 Tre Johnson WSH 10.3 3.1 1.5
11 Bub Carrington WSH 8.1 3.8 4.6
12 Corey Kispert WSH 7.9 2.4 1.5
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.6 2.6 4.1
14 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.5 2.1 0.9
15 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.3 4.5 1.3
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.0 1.9 2.5
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.6 2.5 1.0
18 Bones Hyland MIN 4.9 1.6 1.6
19 Leonard Miller MIN 4.7 2.2 1.3
20 Johnny Juzang MIN 4.6 1.8 0.8
21 Joan Beringer MIN 3.9 2.5 0.7
22 Joe Ingles MIN 3.5 1.0 1.8
23 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.2 1.4 0.6
24 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.0 2.6 0.5
25 Malaki Branham WSH 2.7 1.1 0.4
26 Will Riley WSH 2.1 1.2 0.6
27 AJ Johnson WSH 1.8 0.9 0.5
28 Anthony Gill WSH 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.