NBA games

TOR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
121–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR33204424121
PHI28282630112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHI
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 34 22 3 4
Brandon Ingram S 31 22 0 5
Jakob Poeltl S 33 19 8 4
Immanuel Quickley S 38 18 5 6
Scottie Barnes S 36 16 9 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 15 11 1 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 7 2 2
Gradey Dick 15 4 1 0
Jamison Battle 3 2 0 0
Jamal Shead 20 0 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 24 2 9
Quentin Grimes 32 21 2 2
VJ Edgecombe S 37 21 6 4
Andre Drummond S 34 10 12 0
Jabari Walker 23 9 9 2
Trendon Watford 21 9 3 2
Justin Edwards S 23 8 2 2
Dominick Barlow S 17 5 3 3
Jared McCain 14 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 4-foot two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 VJ Edgecombe PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
27%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.5 4.8 7.6
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.2 6.2 4.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.7 8.2 5.4
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.6 4.3 5.0
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.3 4.8 4.6
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.4 4.4 5.9
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.2 5.4 3.8
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.3 7.8 1.8
9 Andre Drummond PHI 10.3 9.5 1.1
10 Trendon Watford PHI 9.7 4.3 3.5
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.1 5.8 1.5
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.7 3.8 1.7
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.1 2.2 4.4
14 Gradey Dick TOR 6.9 2.2 1.0
15 Justin Edwards PHI 6.2 2.2 1.3
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.0 1.8 0.8
17 Jamison Battle TOR 3.6 1.1 0.4
18 Jabari Walker PHI 3.3 2.2 0.7
19 Ochai Agbaji TOR 2.7 1.6 0.5
20 Jared McCain PHI 2.6 1.2 0.9
21 Johni Broome PHI 2.6 1.8 0.3
22 Hunter Sallis PHI 2.5 1.0 0.6
23 Eric Gordon PHI 2.2 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.