NBA games

GS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
96–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2025292296
MIA29202338110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIA
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 34 20 8 2
Quinten Post 26 19 6 2
Buddy Hield 31 18 6 3
Pat Spencer 32 11 8 13
Moses Moody S 36 9 6 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 25 8 12 0
Gary Payton II 19 7 7 0
Gui Santos S 18 4 6 0
Will Richard S 18 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 28 25 6 3
Bam Adebayo S 29 20 7 3
Andrew Wiggins S 34 17 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 34 12 5 7
Simone Fontecchio 19 10 4 2
Pelle Larsson S 28 10 3 4
Kel'el Ware 19 7 16 0
Davion Mitchell S 24 5 1 6
Dru Smith 24 4 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
16%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
16%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
4 Moses Moody GS
11%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
6 Davion Mitchell MIA
11%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
8 Will Richard GS
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
0%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.9 3.9 3.1
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.6 7.4 3.3
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.3 5.2 3.9
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.9 7.1 5.9
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.5 6.8 2.9
6 Moses Moody GS 14.0 3.6 2.3
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.1 4.6 3.3
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 13.0 3.2 6.7
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 12.8 3.4 3.5
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.7 10.0 1.2
11 Will Richard GS 9.5 2.7 1.5
12 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.4 2.9 1.3
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.5 4.1 3.3
14 Buddy Hield GS 6.7 2.0 1.8
15 Dru Smith MIA 6.6 2.3 2.9
16 Quinten Post GS 6.5 4.0 1.2
17 Pat Spencer GS 5.1 1.9 2.1
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.4 2.8 1.2
19 Jahmir Young MIA 4.3 0.9 1.4
20 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 2.9 1.3
21 Gary Payton II GS 3.8 3.1 1.3
22 Jackson Rowe GS 3.8 2.2 0.9
23 Gui Santos GS 3.1 1.6 0.6
24 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.9 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.