NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA33213034118
IND38323423127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 42 28 8 7
Miles Bridges S 35 25 5 2
LaMelo Ball S 27 18 7 9
Pat Connaughton 16 13 2 1
Collin Sexton 25 11 0 5
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 25 10 9 0
Moussa Diabate 24 8 12 3
Drew Peterson 19 4 3 0
Sion James S 23 1 2 1
KJ Simpson 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 24 12 2
Pascal Siakam S 37 22 4 7
Jay Huff 27 20 5 4
Andrew Nembhard S 34 16 2 7
Ben Sheppard S 31 15 4 2
T.J. McConnell 14 14 6 8
Jarace Walker 26 9 4 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 17 3 2 1
Tony Bradley 4 2 0 0
Isaiah Jackson S 16 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes 22-foot jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
19%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
7 Isaiah Jackson IND
8%
8 Jarace Walker IND
7%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Sion James CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.5 6.0 5.4
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.6 6.3 9.0
3 Miles Bridges CHA 24.2 6.7 4.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 22.3 5.0 2.3
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.1 6.6 3.6
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.2 2.6 6.2
7 Collin Sexton CHA 17.0 3.2 5.5
8 Jarace Walker IND 11.3 4.6 3.0
9 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 11.2 8.0 1.1
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.7 9.5 1.5
11 Isaiah Jackson IND 9.7 7.3 1.5
12 Sion James CHA 9.0 3.6 1.8
13 Ben Sheppard IND 6.8 3.4 1.6
14 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.5 5.5 1.1
15 Jay Huff IND 5.9 3.5 0.9
16 T.J. McConnell IND 5.9 1.5 2.0
17 Tony Bradley IND 5.4 3.1 1.0
18 KJ Simpson CHA 5.0 1.6 2.0
19 RayJ Dennis IND 4.8 1.5 1.7
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.5 2.1 0.8
21 Monte Morris IND 3.8 1.2 1.4
22 Drew Peterson CHA 3.5 1.8 0.8
23 Taelon Peter IND 3.3 1.6 1.3
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.1 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.