NBA games

HOU @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU33241740114
CLE19213034104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CLE
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 38 28 11 7
Kevin Durant S 37 20 3 3
Aaron Holiday 19 18 0 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 14 9 2
Reed Sheppard 23 12 2 2
Amen Thompson S 40 12 9 6
Steven Adams S 28 6 11 3
Clint Capela 14 4 5 0
Josh Okogie 8 0 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter S 31 25 4 2
Donovan Mitchell S 34 21 3 2
Evan Mobley S 36 18 6 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin S 20 10 2 0
Craig Porter Jr. 26 9 7 5
Jarrett Allen S 28 8 7 3
Lonzo Ball 25 7 2 2
Dean Wade 27 4 7 3
Tyrese Proctor 10 2 1 3
Thomas Bryant 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Steven Adams · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Steven Adams makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
8 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.1 5.3 6.4
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.3 5.1 4.3
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.4 10.8 7.4
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.5 8.5 4.2
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.0 6.9 6.1
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 18.3 4.7 3.1
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.6 7.8 2.0
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.5 6.4 2.0
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.2 3.4 3.2
10 Josh Okogie HOU 8.1 2.3 1.5
11 Lonzo Ball CLE 8.1 3.8 4.8
12 Dean Wade CLE 6.2 3.5 1.4
13 Steven Adams HOU 6.1 8.2 1.3
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.1 2.9 2.3
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.7 1.3 1.5
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.6 2.9 0.8
17 JD Davison HOU 4.6 1.2 1.3
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.3 0.9 0.9
19 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.9 0.4
20 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.1 2.4 1.1
21 Clint Capela HOU 2.9 4.6 0.4
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 2.7 1.9 0.5
23 Luke Travers CLE 2.5 1.7 0.6
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.