NBA games

PHX @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
127–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX35293627127
POR32292128110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home POR
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 29 19 6 5
Collin Gillespie 28 19 3 6
Mark Williams S 21 15 6 1
Oso Ighodaro 16 14 4 1
Dillon Brooks S 26 12 2 4
Jordan Goodwin 22 10 4 1
Royce O'Neale S 31 9 5 1
Ryan Dunn S 27 9 3 4
Nick Richards 11 8 2 0
Isaiah Livers 13 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 30 29 2 3
Deni Avdija S 29 19 5 5
Caleb Love 32 17 7 3
Donovan Clingan S 23 9 12 2
Yang Hansen 13 9 5 3
Sidy Cissoko 28 8 3 5
Toumani Camara S 32 6 2 3
Robert Williams III 8 4 2 0
Rayan Rupert 8 3 1 0
Kris Murray S 25 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 5-foot two point shot (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Mark Williams PHX
8%
7 Deni Avdija POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
6%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
44%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 30.2 4.4 7.5
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.9 6.6 5.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.4 5.8 2.7
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.0 3.7 2.7
5 Jrue Holiday POR 19.6 4.7 8.3
6 Jerami Grant POR 17.9 3.5 3.2
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.6 4.8 3.0
8 Mark Williams PHX 13.2 8.8 1.6
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 12.6 4.6 3.2
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.9 4.2 4.7
11 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.7 4.5 2.1
12 Donovan Clingan POR 9.2 8.6 1.2
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.1 3.5 2.2
14 Caleb Love POR 6.7 1.9 1.5
15 Kris Murray POR 6.2 3.4 1.3
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.9 3.8 1.2
17 Robert Williams III POR 4.4 3.5 0.7
18 Isaiah Livers PHX 4.2 2.3 0.8
19 Nick Richards PHX 4.0 3.4 0.8
20 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.8 1.6 0.9
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.6 2.1 0.5
22 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.2 1.8 1.2
23 Duop Reath POR 3.2 0.8 0.5
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.0 1.5 0.5
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.8 1.5 0.4
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.5 0.6
27 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.3 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.