NBA games

UTAH @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
126–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH36352233126
LAL27403736140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home LAL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 35 34 4 8
Lauri Markkanen S 32 31 5 2
Ace Bailey S 23 13 1 1
Svi Mykhailiuk S 25 13 3 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 29 10 10 6
Isaiah Collier 21 9 2 6
Kyle Anderson 20 5 3 5
Cody Williams 21 4 0 0
Elijah Harkless 3 4 0 1
Brice Sensabaugh 17 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 37 5 10
Austin Reaves S 33 26 5 1
Deandre Ayton S 30 20 14 1
Jake LaRavia 26 16 4 2
LeBron James S 30 11 3 12
Jaxson Hayes 15 8 3 0
Gabe Vincent 16 6 0 1
Rui Hachimura S 26 6 4 1
Marcus Smart 17 5 3 1
Bronny James 4 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Svi Mykhailiuk · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Svi Mykhailiuk makes 27-foot three pointer (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
7 Bronny James LAL
6%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
6%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
6%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 33.9 8.3 9.1
2 Austin Reaves LAL 28.6 4.8 8.7
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.7 5.6 2.5
4 Keyonte George UTAH 24.1 4.3 6.6
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 18.3 9.0 1.7
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.3 4.2 1.6
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 13.1 4.9 2.6
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.9 3.8 6.9
9 Marcus Smart LAL 11.8 2.9 4.0
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.8 2.8 1.9
11 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.8 3.7 1.7
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.8 1.1 2.3
13 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 9.2 8.9 4.1
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.2 2.8 1.1
15 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.5 2.6 1.3
16 Kevin Love UTAH 5.6 3.5 1.8
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 3.8 1.1
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.3 5.0 1.6
19 Cody Williams UTAH 5.0 1.8 0.9
20 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 4.9 1.7 2.4
21 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.0 3.1 0.6
22 Kyle Anderson UTAH 3.9 1.4 2.7
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.8 2.2 1.0
24 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.6 1.7
25 Elijah Harkless UTAH 2.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.