NBA games

MEM @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
101–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM24234014101
SA23263725111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SA
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 26 19 11 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 18 6 3
Cam Spencer 24 15 2 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 30 14 9 9
Santi Aldama 26 10 6 2
Jaylen Wells S 27 9 1 2
Zach Edey S 25 8 11 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 19 4 3 3
Jock Landale 18 4 7 2
John Konchar 14 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 26 1 3
Harrison Barnes S 32 23 5 3
Keldon Johnson 30 18 7 2
Devin Vassell S 35 10 3 5
Kelly Olynyk 19 10 5 3
Julian Champagnie S 24 9 1 0
Jeremy Sochan 22 8 6 2
Carter Bryant 8 5 2 0
David Jones Garcia 7 2 1 2
Luke Kornet S 25 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cedric Coward · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
22%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
3 Luke Kornet SA
14%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
14%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
11%
7 Devin Vassell SA
10%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
9 Jock Landale MEM
0%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
16%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.4 4.4 7.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.9 5.5 2.0
3 Harrison Barnes SA 14.2 3.3 2.5
4 Santi Aldama MEM 14.1 6.2 2.8
5 Cedric Coward MEM 13.9 6.3 3.4
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.3 3.7 2.7
7 Julian Champagnie SA 11.0 4.0 1.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 10.7 6.1 2.0
9 Jock Landale MEM 10.6 5.0 1.9
10 Luke Kornet SA 10.6 7.4 1.9
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.6 3.5 1.5
12 Cam Spencer MEM 8.4 1.9 2.8
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.2 3.4 2.8
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.3 2.5 2.3
15 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.4 2.7 1.6
16 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.2 2.5 2.9
17 GG Jackson MEM 4.0 1.4 0.4
18 Lindy Waters III SA 4.0 1.2 0.8
19 Carter Bryant SA 3.9 1.8 0.8
20 David Jones Garcia SA 3.7 1.7 1.4
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.6 2.3 0.8
22 John Konchar MEM 3.3 2.2 0.9
23 Harrison Ingram SA 2.6 1.6 0.4
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.6 2.3 0.7
25 Riley Minix SA 2.5 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.