NBA games

DET @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
120–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET35322726120
ATL30242830112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ATL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 25 6 10
Jalen Duren S 29 24 8 3
Daniss Jenkins S 30 14 3 7
Duncan Robinson S 31 14 3 3
Isaiah Stewart S 26 13 9 3
Javonte Green 29 9 3 1
Chaz Lanier 11 9 2 0
Ausar Thompson 24 6 2 0
Paul Reed 9 4 2 0
Ronald Holland II 19 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 25 8 9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 37 24 3 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 21 1 3
Dyson Daniels S 38 12 9 6
Mouhamed Gueye 21 11 11 1
Vit Krejci S 36 9 3 2
Keaton Wallace 13 7 0 2
Luke Kennard 17 3 0 5
Asa Newell 2 0 0 0
Caleb Houstan 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes layup (Isaiah Stewart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
6%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
15%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.1 5.2 9.3
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.1 10.3 6.6
3 Jalen Duren DET 22.0 12.5 2.5
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.5 3.8 3.9
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.6 7.6 2.7
6 Ausar Thompson DET 14.2 6.5 3.1
7 Duncan Robinson DET 13.0 3.4 2.3
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.0 3.5 2.1
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 11.6 2.5 3.9
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.6 5.8 6.5
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.2 6.1 1.4
12 Javonte Green DET 9.9 4.3 1.5
13 Vit Krejci ATL 9.5 2.6 1.7
14 Ronald Holland II DET 9.3 4.2 2.0
15 Luke Kennard ATL 8.4 2.3 1.6
16 Asa Newell ATL 6.4 3.1 0.7
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.4 2.4 3.1
18 Paul Reed DET 6.2 4.4 1.3
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.6 1.4
20 Chaz Lanier DET 5.1 1.6 1.2
21 Tolu Smith DET 3.9 4.9 0.6
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.7 1.0 0.4
23 Jacob Toppin ATL 3.7 1.1 0.8
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.6 1.6 0.9
25 Isaac Jones DET 3.5 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.