NBA games

BOS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
113–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29332724113
BKN2932241499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home BKN
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 29 4 4
Payton Pritchard S 35 22 10 5
Derrick White S 33 15 5 4
Anfernee Simons 26 11 4 5
Josh Minott 19 10 4 0
Sam Hauser 22 8 7 3
Neemias Queta S 23 6 7 2
Luka Garza 20 5 5 0
Jordan Walsh S 11 4 1 0
Baylor Scheierman 13 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 25 6 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 16 7 2
Noah Clowney S 23 13 1 0
Ziaire Williams 27 12 4 3
Egor Demin S 23 12 3 4
Tyrese Martin 18 8 1 2
Nic Claxton S 30 7 11 3
Drake Powell 24 3 1 1
Terance Mann S 27 3 4 7
Nolan Traore 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
15%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
8%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
7 Payton Pritchard BOS
8%
8 Terance Mann BKN
8%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
7%
10 Egor Demin BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
14%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.0 5.9 4.8
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.2 8.0 3.8
3 Nic Claxton BKN 17.2 7.8 4.1
4 Derrick White BOS 17.1 4.4 6.0
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.1 3.4 5.4
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.3 2.3 2.9
7 Terance Mann BKN 11.1 3.3 3.2
8 Noah Clowney BKN 10.5 3.8 1.7
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.2 2.9 1.2
10 Neemias Queta BOS 9.8 8.4 1.8
11 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.1 3.4 2.1
12 Josh Minott BOS 7.4 5.3 1.6
13 Luka Garza BOS 7.2 4.3 1.1
14 Egor Demin BKN 7.0 2.6 3.3
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.2 5.3 1.8
16 Sam Hauser BOS 5.8 3.2 1.5
17 Drake Powell BKN 5.7 2.1 1.8
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 1.4 0.9
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.5 4.2 1.1
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.3 0.5
21 Danny Wolf BKN 4.1 1.8 2.1
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.9 2.1 0.8
23 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.1 1.1 0.7
24 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.0 1.7 0.6
25 Nolan Traore BKN 2.9 0.7 1.2
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.