NBA games

GS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS32282528113
ORL36312628121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home ORL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 34 3 9
Jimmy Butler III S 38 33 7 4
Draymond Green S 31 12 6 6
Al Horford 27 9 6 1
Will Richard S 15 6 0 2
Moses Moody S 30 6 4 2
Brandin Podziemski 27 5 6 0
Gary Payton II 10 4 1 1
Buddy Hield 15 2 0 0
Quinten Post 12 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 39 23 6 5
Anthony Black 33 21 4 2
Franz Wagner S 36 18 8 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 17 12 2
Tristan da Silva S 29 15 4 2
Jalen Suggs S 32 13 5 8
Tyus Jones 15 8 0 3
Goga Bitadze 14 6 2 3
Jonathan Isaac 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
3 Stephen Curry GS
11%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III GS
10%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Will Richard GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.8 4.3 3.9
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.5 6.7 4.6
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.1 5.6 4.8
4 Desmond Bane ORL 17.7 4.5 5.3
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.6 6.6 2.2
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.4 6.3 2.6
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.1 3.9 4.8
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.3 4.3 3.3
9 Anthony Black ORL 11.8 3.5 2.9
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.5 4.1 1.5
11 Moses Moody GS 11.3 3.3 1.7
12 Draymond Green GS 8.8 5.8 4.4
13 Will Richard GS 8.7 2.5 1.3
14 Buddy Hield GS 6.5 1.7 1.6
15 Al Horford GS 6.4 3.8 1.7
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 4.7 0.8
17 Quinten Post GS 5.7 3.6 0.9
18 Pat Spencer GS 5.1 1.8 1.9
19 Jamal Cain ORL 4.9 2.2 0.6
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.3 2.5 1.1
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 3.4 0.6
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.5 1.6 0.8
23 Gui Santos GS 3.1 1.6 0.5
24 Gary Payton II GS 2.9 2.7 1.0
25 Tyus Jones ORL 2.7 1.3 1.0
26 Jase Richardson ORL 2.7 1.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.