NBA games

CHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
130–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30334027130
DEN28362934127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DEN
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 30 21 14 6
Ayo Dosunmu 26 21 3 5
Kevin Huerter S 24 20 2 1
Jalen Smith 18 16 8 2
Jevon Carter 18 15 4 1
Matas Buzelis S 29 13 4 2
Nikola Vucevic S 29 8 9 6
Patrick Williams 17 7 2 2
Dalen Terry 18 5 3 4
Julian Phillips 11 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 36 18 13
Jamal Murray S 38 34 11 4
Aaron Gordon S 32 24 10 0
Cameron Johnson S 37 19 4 3
Peyton Watson S 34 5 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 16 4 2 0
Jalen Pickett 10 3 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas 5 2 2 0
Bruce Brown 23 0 2 0
Spencer Jones 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Peyton Watson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Peyton Watson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Kevin Huerter CHI
9%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.1 13.2 11.7
2 Josh Giddey CHI 24.9 10.1 8.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.2 5.3 6.4
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.0 5.6 2.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.5 9.2 3.6
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 2.8 3.2
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.4 5.9 1.6
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 14.9 4.3 2.9
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.4 2.5 2.1
10 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.4 3.0 1.8
11 Jalen Smith CHI 8.3 5.8 1.3
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.9 4.8 1.1
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 7.8 2.6 1.7
14 Patrick Williams CHI 7.7 2.6 1.5
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.7 4.2 1.6
16 Bruce Brown DEN 7.3 4.1 1.4
17 Jevon Carter CHI 6.5 1.3 1.3
18 Noa Essengue CHI 4.3 1.7 0.9
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.1 1.2 0.9
20 Julian Phillips CHI 2.9 1.3 0.5
21 Spencer Jones DEN 2.7 1.2 0.7
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.5 1.3 0.9
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.0 0.5
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.