NBA games

OKC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
126–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC49203621126
NO24322429109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NO
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 33 26 9 0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 23 2 8
Luguentz Dort S 28 17 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 16 7 6
Isaiah Joe 26 14 3 4
Ajay Mitchell 26 11 2 1
Cason Wallace S 28 7 2 4
Branden Carlson 11 7 4 2
Chris Youngblood 3 3 1 0
Brooks Barnhizer 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears S 25 24 1 1
Trey Murphy III S 33 18 5 1
Micah Peavy 24 16 4 4
Jordan Hawkins 25 11 2 6
Karlo Matkovic 22 10 6 2
Derik Queen S 26 9 8 3
Yves Missi S 22 6 2 2
Jose Alvarado 23 6 2 1
Herbert Jones S 26 5 2 1
Bryce McGowens 13 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes 16-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
15%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
12%
4 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
5 Derik Queen NO
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Kevon Looney NO
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
17%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.0 7.0
2 Trey Murphy III NO 21.5 6.4 3.5
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.7 8.4 2.4
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 18.0 4.3 4.6
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.6 3.8 3.7
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 15.6 11.2 3.9
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.2 3.2 1.8
8 Herbert Jones NO 10.8 3.1 2.8
9 Derik Queen NO 10.6 6.5 3.3
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.2 3.0 2.4
11 Jose Alvarado NO 8.6 2.6 2.6
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.4 4.2 1.6
13 Alex Caruso OKC 6.3 2.5 2.3
14 Yves Missi NO 6.2 6.0 1.1
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.1 5.1 2.2
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.4 2.8 0.8
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.2 1.9 0.8
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 2.4 0.8
19 Branden Carlson OKC 3.8 2.5 0.8
20 Bryce McGowens NO 3.6 1.4 0.6
21 Kevon Looney NO 3.5 3.0 1.2
22 Micah Peavy NO 2.9 2.2 0.9
23 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.6 2.4 0.6
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.1 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.