NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
96–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2123223096
MIN34273722120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 14 17 3 0
Brandon Williams S 24 15 5 2
Cooper Flagg S 27 15 1 2
P.J. Washington S 25 13 7 2
D'Angelo Russell 22 8 2 4
Klay Thompson 17 7 0 0
Naji Marshall 23 7 3 0
Caleb Martin 18 6 3 1
Moussa Cisse S 26 5 10 0
Miles Kelly 9 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 23 22 12 2
Jaden McDaniels S 23 15 5 3
Rudy Gobert S 29 15 9 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 14 5 2
Anthony Edwards S 29 13 4 3
Julius Randle S 27 12 6 4
Rob Dillingham 13 8 1 1
Joan Beringer 8 6 4 0
Jaylen Clark 19 5 6 0
Mike Conley 16 5 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moussa Cisse · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Moussa Cisse makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
4 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
6 Julius Randle MIN
10%
7 Brandon Williams DAL
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
9%
9 Max Christie DAL
9%
10 D'Angelo Russell DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
16%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 26.5 7.7 6.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.2 4.1
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN 20.0 5.3 3.2
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 18.3 7.5 3.9
5 P.J. Washington DAL 16.0 7.9 2.6
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.0 4.4 3.6
7 D'Angelo Russell DAL 14.3 3.3 4.9
8 Brandon Williams DAL 13.5 3.5 4.1
9 Naji Marshall DAL 13.3 4.9 2.7
10 Max Christie DAL 13.2 4.5 3.3
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 10.3 1.5
12 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 5.7 2.3
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.1 2.9 2.0
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.5 2.6 3.6
15 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.7 1.7 2.2
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.6 2.1 0.8
17 Moussa Cisse DAL 4.7 4.3 0.6
18 Leonard Miller MIN 4.7 2.4 0.9
19 Johnny Juzang MIN 4.7 1.9 0.6
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.0 1.1 0.6
21 Miles Kelly DAL 3.5 0.8 1.0
22 Bones Hyland MIN 3.3 0.9 1.0
23 Joan Beringer MIN 3.2 2.2 0.4
24 Caleb Martin DAL 2.6 1.8 1.0
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 2.0 0.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.4 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.