NBA games

CHA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
108–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA24283125108
TOR28292825110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home TOR
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 36 24 7 1
Miles Bridges S 38 22 8 3
LaMelo Ball S 28 20 5 8
Collin Sexton 28 17 3 2
Moussa Diabate 20 8 7 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 28 7 10 0
Pat Connaughton 9 5 1 0
Tre Mann 12 4 1 0
Drew Peterson 16 1 1 1
Sion James S 25 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 27 6 3
RJ Barrett S 33 16 3 3
Scottie Barnes S 33 16 6 6
Immanuel Quickley S 31 15 10 4
Jakob Poeltl S 32 13 9 1
Gradey Dick 19 10 1 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 7 4 1
Collin Murray-Boyles 15 4 1 1
Jamal Shead 20 2 2 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
5 Collin Sexton CHA
9%
6 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 23.4 6.2 4.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.4 6.2 8.7
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.9 5.9 4.6
4 RJ Barrett TOR 20.2 4.8 4.5
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.6 7.5 5.4
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.3 6.0 3.8
7 Collin Sexton CHA 17.4 3.2 5.3
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.9 3.9 6.2
9 Tre Mann CHA 12.9 3.6 3.6
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.6 7.6 1.9
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.6 7.1 1.0
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.2 8.4 1.2
13 Sion James CHA 9.3 3.3 1.5
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.3 3.5 1.9
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.1 3.6 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 7.0 2.1 4.7
17 Gradey Dick TOR 6.2 1.9 0.9
18 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.5 1.5 0.7
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.3 1.6 0.9
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.9 1.9 0.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.1 0.5
22 Drew Peterson CHA 3.5 1.6 0.7
23 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.5 1.8 0.6
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.