NBA games

NY @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
113–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY20313131113
MIA25302832115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles McBride S 39 25 4 0
Mikal Bridges S 39 23 3 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 22 15 2
Josh Hart 34 14 5 9
Jordan Clarkson 26 14 3 3
Landry Shamet S 39 10 3 4
Mitchell Robinson S 18 5 11 1
Guerschon Yabusele 10 0 3 0
Mohamed Diawara 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 19 1 3
Davion Mitchell S 33 18 3 5
Kel'el Ware S 31 16 14 1
Simone Fontecchio 21 14 4 3
Pelle Larsson S 26 13 7 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 13 1 4
Dru Smith 16 11 3 3
Andrew Wiggins S 33 6 4 4
Nikola Jovic 15 5 1 2
Keshad Johnson 2 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles McBride · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA
15%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
14%
3 Norman Powell MIA
11%
4 Davion Mitchell MIA
11%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
6 Mitchell Robinson NY
10%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
9 Miles McBride NY
8%
10 Jordan Clarkson NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
21%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 24.1 4.5 3.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.7 12.6 4.3
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA 20.4 5.0 3.9
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.9 7.3 6.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.7 5.5
6 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.5 3.3 3.5
7 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.9 3.0 7.0
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.7 9.7 1.3
9 Josh Hart NY 11.4 5.8 4.8
10 Landry Shamet NY 10.0 2.3 1.4
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.0 2.1 1.9
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.1 4.2 3.4
13 Miles McBride NY 9.0 2.8 2.6
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.3 2.5 1.3
15 Dru Smith MIA 6.2 1.9 3.2
16 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 5.5 2.3 1.5
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 8.7 0.8
18 Jahmir Young MIA 4.6 0.8 1.4
19 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.5 2.7 1.7
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.6 2.3 0.8
21 Vladislav Goldin MIA 3.0 2.0 0.6
22 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 0.8 1.0
23 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.8 1.3 0.6
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.8 1.2 0.5
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 2.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.