NBA games

LAC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
108–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC33232725108
PHI25212737110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHI
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 28 6 5
Kobe Sanders S 30 17 1 1
Ivica Zubac S 34 14 13 1
John Collins S 27 11 7 0
Nicolas Batum 21 11 6 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 9 7 5
Kris Dunn S 27 7 2 5
Brook Lopez 14 6 1 0
Chris Paul 11 3 2 0
Cam Christie 12 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 39 3 6
Quentin Grimes 36 19 2 3
Andre Drummond S 38 14 18 0
VJ Edgecombe S 37 14 6 6
Paul George S 21 9 7 3
Trendon Watford 19 8 3 4
Dominick Barlow S 21 7 1 0
Justin Edwards 18 0 5 4
Jared McCain 5 0 0 0
Jabari Walker 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
17%
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI
15%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
4 Trendon Watford PHI
11%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
7 John Collins LAC
10%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
10%
9 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.0 4.8 8.0
2 James Harden LAC 26.6 6.5 9.0
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 18.2 4.3 5.2
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.2 11.8 2.2
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.1 5.5 4.2
6 John Collins LAC 12.4 4.3 1.4
7 Trendon Watford PHI 9.8 4.3 3.5
8 Andre Drummond PHI 9.7 9.3 1.2
9 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.2 6.1 1.5
10 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 2.9 2.9
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 9.0 2.7 2.9
12 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.8 1.9 1.6
13 Justin Edwards PHI 6.2 1.9 1.2
14 Brook Lopez LAC 6.1 2.0 1.1
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.7 3.1 1.1
16 Cam Christie LAC 4.5 1.4 0.9
17 Jabari Walker PHI 3.8 2.6 0.7
18 Chris Paul LAC 3.3 1.2 3.5
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.1 2.3 0.5
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.1 2.5 0.8
21 Johni Broome PHI 2.9 1.8 0.3
22 Eric Gordon PHI 2.5 0.6 0.4
23 Jared McCain PHI 1.9 0.9 0.9
24 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 1.8 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.