NBA games

IND @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND21252937112
DET26363134127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DET
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 29 7 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 25 3 2
Isaiah Jackson S 27 16 10 3
Andrew Nembhard S 32 15 1 4
Jarace Walker S 28 8 3 1
Jay Huff 8 5 0 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 20 4 9 0
Tony Bradley 17 4 5 1
Ben Sheppard 29 4 4 4
Monte Morris 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 29 31 15 3
Daniss Jenkins S 33 26 2 8
Javonte Green 27 20 4 0
Duncan Robinson S 34 13 2 4
Isaiah Stewart S 20 10 2 0
Caris LeVert 17 8 5 8
Paul Reed 13 7 2 3
Ronald Holland II S 31 7 7 2
Chaz Lanier 18 3 2 1
Isaac Jones 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
18%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
5 Paul Reed DET
7%
6 Tony Bradley IND
7%
7 Jarace Walker IND
7%
8 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND
6%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
6%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
8%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.3 6.4 5.4
2 Jalen Duren DET 21.0 12.5 2.5
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.6 4.8 1.7
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 16.8 2.6 5.8
5 Duncan Robinson DET 12.7 3.2 2.2
6 Jarace Walker IND 12.3 4.8 3.0
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.6 6.8 1.6
8 Daniss Jenkins DET 11.5 2.4 4.1
9 Ronald Holland II DET 9.9 3.8 2.1
10 Caris LeVert DET 9.5 2.3 2.9
11 Javonte Green DET 8.9 4.2 1.7
12 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.8 6.7 1.2
13 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 1.8 2.1
14 Paul Reed DET 7.5 5.5 1.4
15 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 3.5 1.2
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.2 5.4 1.0
17 Jay Huff IND 5.7 3.6 0.9
18 RayJ Dennis IND 5.4 1.9 1.7
19 Tony Bradley IND 5.1 3.4 0.9
20 Chaz Lanier DET 5.1 1.4 1.4
21 Tolu Smith DET 4.3 5.1 0.7
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.0 1.8 1.3
23 Monte Morris IND 3.9 1.6 1.4
24 Taelon Peter IND 3.7 2.0 1.4
25 Isaac Jones DET 2.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.