NBA games

MIL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
106–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33243118106
CLE26333326118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CLE
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 29 24 3 5
Myles Turner S 37 15 7 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 13 14 5 4
AJ Green S 40 12 3 4
Gary Trent Jr. 31 12 2 0
Bobby Portis 27 11 6 0
Kyle Kuzma S 24 10 5 2
Cole Anthony 22 4 1 8
Jericho Sims 12 2 2 1
Gary Harris 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 37 5 7
Sam Merrill S 28 20 5 0
Evan Mobley S 36 14 6 6
Jarrett Allen S 25 12 6 2
Craig Porter Jr. 20 11 1 0
De'Andre Hunter S 26 11 5 1
Lonzo Ball 23 6 5 5
Dean Wade 28 5 8 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 12 2 2 1
Thomas Bryant 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
12%
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE
12%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 AJ Green MIL
7%
9 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
7%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
25%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 10.4 7.9
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.7 5.3 6.5
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.0 9.4 4.4
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.0 4.2 6.4
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 19.4 4.9 3.7
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.1 8.6 1.9
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.9 4.9 2.2
8 Myles Turner MIL 13.8 5.9 1.9
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.4 2.3 2.7
10 AJ Green MIL 10.3 2.7 2.0
11 Bobby Portis MIL 10.2 5.1 1.7
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.8 2.1 1.9
13 Cole Anthony MIL 9.3 3.7 4.7
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 8.3 3.9 5.2
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.5 3.2 2.8
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 3.5 1.5
17 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.9 3.1 0.8
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.4 1.4 1.1
19 Pete Nance MIL 4.3 1.6 0.6
20 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.2 2.9 1.4
21 Mark Sears MIL 4.1 1.3 0.7
22 Gary Harris MIL 3.7 1.6 0.9
23 Amir Coffey MIL 3.2 1.8 0.7
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.9 0.5
25 Thomas Bryant CLE 2.8 1.6 0.4
26 Jericho Sims MIL 2.7 2.4 0.7
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.