NBA games

ATL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
124–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25322047124
PHX21373727122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHX
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 27 4 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 26 3 4
Jalen Johnson S 39 25 10 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 15 3 4
Dyson Daniels S 37 11 7 12
Asa Newell 9 8 1 0
Vit Krejci 22 7 3 2
Keaton Wallace 12 5 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 10 0 1 0
Luke Kennard 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 36 34 6 1
Devin Booker S 38 27 2 7
Collin Gillespie 32 15 8 7
Jordan Goodwin 22 14 7 2
Ryan Dunn S 24 12 4 4
Mark Williams S 28 8 4 1
Isaiah Livers 17 6 5 0
Royce O'Neale S 25 3 6 1
Nick Richards 14 3 5 0
Oso Ighodaro 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
10%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Mark Williams PHX
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Nick Richards PHX
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.6 4.7 7.7
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.1 10.3 6.2
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.3 3.7 3.8
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.9 6.3 3.4
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.6 3.3 2.6
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.0 7.8 2.5
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.2 5.5 3.8
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.8 3.3 1.8
9 Mark Williams PHX 11.8 8.7 1.4
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 10.8 5.4 5.7
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.2 3.9 4.9
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.4 4.4 1.7
13 Luke Kennard ATL 9.3 2.5 1.9
14 Vit Krejci ATL 8.5 2.6 1.5
15 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.2 2.3 3.1
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.1 3.1 1.8
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.5 1.3
18 Asa Newell ATL 6.0 3.0 0.7
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.8 3.7 1.3
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.3 2.5 0.8
21 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.1 1.2 0.5
22 Nick Richards PHX 4.0 3.7 0.7
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.8 2.1 0.8
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.4 1.9 0.7
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.9 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.