NBA games

POR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
133–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR3724302715133
DAL2928283320138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DAL
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 39 36 4 6
Deni Avdija S 39 29 6 7
Jerami Grant S 39 26 5 2
Donovan Clingan S 28 16 11 2
Toumani Camara S 41 11 10 3
Kris Murray 32 6 5 2
Robert Williams III 17 6 5 1
Caleb Love 14 2 2 2
Sidy Cissoko 12 1 2 1
Rayan Rupert 5 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 38 21 7 2
Cooper Flagg S 37 21 8 5
Daniel Gafford S 31 20 6 2
Klay Thompson 26 19 3 2
Brandon Williams S 31 15 3 6
Max Christie S 28 14 4 4
D'Angelo Russell 22 12 2 7
Naji Marshall 27 9 9 3
Moussa Cisse 7 5 1 0
Dereck Lively II 12 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Brandon Williams DAL
8%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
40%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.8 7.1 5.0
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.9 6.2 2.3
3 Jrue Holiday POR 20.1 5.0 7.9
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 17.2 7.0 3.5
5 Jerami Grant POR 16.6 3.6 2.9
6 P.J. Washington DAL 16.4 8.2 2.9
7 D'Angelo Russell DAL 14.9 3.5 5.4
8 Max Christie DAL 13.8 4.5 2.9
9 Naji Marshall DAL 13.7 4.6 2.5
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 4.4 2.9
11 Brandon Williams DAL 12.2 3.1 3.6
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.6 6.6 1.3
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.4 3.0 2.4
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.8 9.1 1.2
15 Caleb Love POR 7.7 2.1 1.4
16 Kris Murray POR 6.6 3.5 1.3
17 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.3 6.2 1.6
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 4.8 4.5 0.7
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.3 0.9
20 Robert Williams III POR 4.4 3.8 0.6
21 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.4 1.9 1.0
22 Duop Reath POR 4.3 1.5 0.6
23 Miles Kelly DAL 3.7 0.8 1.1
24 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.6 0.7 0.7
25 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 2.1 0.6
26 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.1 0.8
27 Caleb Martin DAL 2.9 1.8 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.