NBA games

GS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
124–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS44172439124
NO28212235106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NO
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 33 32 4 0
Brandin Podziemski 26 19 3 3
Jimmy Butler III S 31 18 3 10
Buddy Hield 20 11 2 2
Stephen Curry S 28 9 5 3
Will Richard S 22 9 7 1
Draymond Green S 25 8 10 6
Al Horford 20 6 2 6
Quinten Post 10 4 7 0
Pat Spencer 5 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 31 20 8 2
Jose Alvarado 25 18 1 3
Jeremiah Fears S 25 17 5 1
Saddiq Bey S 29 11 7 1
Derik Queen S 25 9 7 6
Yves Missi 25 8 7 2
Bryce McGowens 13 8 1 0
Herbert Jones S 29 6 2 1
Jordan Hawkins 15 5 4 2
Karlo Matkovic 20 4 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
17%
2 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
4 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
5 Kevon Looney NO
8%
6 Stephen Curry GS
8%
7 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 28.1 4.5 4.3
2 Trey Murphy III NO 21.1 6.3 3.8
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.8 6.0 4.8
4 Zion Williamson NO 19.5 6.3 4.8
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 16.2 3.7 3.9
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.5 6.7 2.9
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.7 4.5 3.7
8 Saddiq Bey NO 12.4 4.4 2.0
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.9 3.2 2.7
10 Derik Queen NO 11.4 6.3 2.8
11 Moses Moody GS 11.1 3.3 2.0
12 Draymond Green GS 9.2 5.3 5.4
13 Will Richard GS 9.1 2.3 1.5
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.5 2.8 2.5
15 Al Horford GS 7.1 4.0 1.6
16 Quinten Post GS 6.8 4.1 1.1
17 Yves Missi NO 6.5 6.1 1.2
18 Buddy Hield GS 6.1 1.9 1.6
19 Pat Spencer GS 5.0 1.8 1.9
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.5 3.1 1.0
21 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.5 2.8 0.7
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.4 1.8 0.8
23 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 3.4 1.2
24 Gary Payton II GS 3.6 2.5 1.2
25 Micah Peavy NO 3.4 2.5 0.9
26 Gui Santos GS 2.6 1.3 0.5
27 Bryce McGowens NO 2.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.