NBA games

ORL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ORL3025252211113
HOU2323312515117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home HOU
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 43 29 5 4
Desmond Bane S 44 26 4 4
Anthony Black S 36 18 3 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 15 6 2
Tristan da Silva S 40 13 6 2
Jett Howard 20 5 2 2
Goga Bitadze 16 4 4 1
Jonathan Isaac 14 3 6 0
Tyus Jones 15 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 45 35 5 6
Alperen Sengun S 45 30 12 8
Reed Sheppard 29 16 7 2
Amen Thompson S 39 12 10 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 43 10 10 0
Aaron Holiday 16 10 1 0
Steven Adams 27 3 13 0
Josh Okogie S 22 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 19-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
16%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
7 Josh Okogie HOU
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.4 4.4 3.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.2 6.2 4.3
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.8 9.8 7.2
4 Amen Thompson HOU 19.6 6.1 5.9
5 Desmond Bane ORL 16.9 4.1 4.8
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.9 5.7 2.0
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.9 6.4 2.1
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.9 2.7 3.3
9 Anthony Black ORL 11.1 3.2 2.5
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.9 3.6 1.2
11 Josh Okogie HOU 9.2 2.5 1.5
12 Steven Adams HOU 6.4 7.9 1.4
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 4.5 0.9
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.9 1.6 1.8
15 JD Davison HOU 5.5 1.4 1.5
16 Jamal Cain ORL 4.7 2.0 0.5
17 Jeff Green HOU 4.6 2.2 0.6
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.7 2.9 0.6
19 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 4.6 0.6
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 1.3 0.7
21 Noah Penda ORL 3.2 2.2 0.6
22 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.9 1.6 0.4
23 Tyus Jones ORL 2.7 1.3 1.0
24 Jase Richardson ORL 2.7 0.9 1.0
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.6 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.