NBA games

BKN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
129–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN28353135129
WSH28253122106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home WSH
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 34 9 7
Tyrese Martin 26 20 2 4
Nic Claxton S 30 17 8 7
Ziaire Williams 30 13 4 0
Noah Clowney S 30 12 4 1
Terance Mann S 29 10 7 3
Drake Powell 19 6 4 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 6 5 3
Egor Demin S 20 5 1 5
Tyson Etienne 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 32 29 6 5
CJ McCollum S 32 17 2 3
Khris Middleton S 27 14 5 2
Alex Sarr S 23 9 3 1
Tre Johnson 17 6 0 1
Cam Whitmore 13 6 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 6 3 4
Bub Carrington 20 5 4 3
Corey Kispert 15 4 2 0
Marvin Bagley III 17 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyshawn George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kyshawn George makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
8 Terance Mann BKN
8%
9 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.1 8.4 3.8
2 Alex Sarr WSH 23.4 8.8 4.1
3 CJ McCollum WSH 18.5 3.7 3.7
4 Kyshawn George WSH 18.1 6.1 5.4
5 Nic Claxton BKN 17.9 8.5 3.8
6 Tre Johnson WSH 12.1 3.6 1.8
7 Terance Mann BKN 11.5 3.7 3.5
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.4 4.3 3.2
9 Noah Clowney BKN 11.0 4.1 2.1
10 Khris Middleton WSH 10.4 3.9 2.9
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.1 3.0 1.2
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.4 2.4 1.1
13 Bub Carrington WSH 8.3 3.8 5.2
14 Corey Kispert WSH 7.9 2.4 1.6
15 Egor Demin BKN 7.6 3.2 3.6
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.6 3.4 2.3
17 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.6 4.6 1.3
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.4 5.4 2.0
19 Drake Powell BKN 6.1 2.1 1.9
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.7 1.3 0.9
21 Malaki Branham WSH 3.9 1.5 0.7
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.7 1.5 0.8
23 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.2 3.0 0.7
24 Tyson Etienne BKN 2.7 0.6 0.5
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.6 1.2 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.9 1.1 0.4
27 AJ Johnson WSH 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.