NBA games

SAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
110–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC24352625110
SA36312828123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home SA
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 27 2 4
Dennis Schroder 35 22 6 5
Domantas Sabonis S 36 17 13 5
Malik Monk 28 16 2 1
Russell Westbrook S 35 14 9 7
Zach LaVine S 25 8 2 3
Drew Eubanks 12 2 1 0
Keon Ellis S 15 2 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 5 1 1 0
Nique Clifford 11 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 28 2 11
Harrison Barnes S 30 20 2 3
Devin Vassell S 34 16 3 7
Keldon Johnson 23 14 12 1
Luke Kornet S 28 13 11 1
Julian Champagnie 26 12 2 0
Jeremy Sochan 22 11 5 2
Kelly Olynyk 18 5 6 8
Stephon Castle S 16 4 0 5
Bismack Biyombo 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes alley oop layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Stephon Castle SA
16%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
6%
10 Dennis Schroder SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 24.9 4.7 7.6
2 Zach LaVine SAC 21.8 4.0 2.9
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.0 6.7 8.7
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.9 11.3 4.0
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.2 3.3 2.9
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 6.6 7.1
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.0 3.7 2.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.9 3.4 2.3
9 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 2.3 2.4
10 Keldon Johnson SA 11.4 5.5 2.0
11 Dennis Schroder SAC 11.1 3.5 5.3
12 Julian Champagnie SA 11.1 4.3 1.7
13 Luke Kornet SA 10.5 7.0 1.8
14 Drew Eubanks SAC 7.6 3.3 0.8
15 Keon Ellis SAC 7.2 2.0 1.1
16 Nique Clifford SAC 6.9 3.2 2.5
17 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.2 2.5 1.5
18 Precious Achiuwa SAC 5.5 4.7 0.7
19 Lindy Waters III SA 4.6 1.5 1.0
20 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.1 3.2 0.8
21 Dario Saric SAC 3.7 1.3 0.4
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.5 1.5 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 0.9 1.1
24 Harrison Ingram SA 2.7 1.7 0.4
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.5 1.6 1.2
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.