NBA games

LAC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC30193633118
BOS37262731121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home BOS
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 38 37 7 8
John Collins S 30 17 2 0
Ivica Zubac S 34 16 12 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 35 11 4 3
Kobe Sanders 23 11 6 2
Nicolas Batum 20 6 4 0
Kris Dunn S 25 6 4 3
Brook Lopez 14 5 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 11 5 1 0
Jordan Miller 11 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 33 13 3
Payton Pritchard S 33 30 3 2
Derrick White S 39 22 7 9
Neemias Queta S 33 14 9 3
Luka Garza 14 13 4 0
Jordan Walsh S 33 6 8 3
Baylor Scheierman 18 3 2 2
Anfernee Simons 12 0 0 2
Josh Minott 11 0 1 1
Sam Hauser 7 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Derrick White makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Neemias Queta assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 John Collins LAC
8%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.2 5.3 5.0
2 James Harden LAC 26.0 6.5 8.1
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.7 11.3 2.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.5 3.5 5.7
5 Derrick White BOS 15.6 4.3 5.7
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.8 2.9 2.7
7 John Collins LAC 11.7 4.5 1.3
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.2 3.3 1.3
9 Neemias Queta BOS 9.3 8.1 1.6
10 Kris Dunn LAC 8.7 2.7 2.3
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 8.1 2.4 2.6
12 Josh Minott BOS 8.1 6.0 1.7
13 Jordan Miller LAC 7.6 3.1 0.8
14 Luka Garza BOS 7.0 4.3 1.1
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.1 1.5 1.3
16 Sam Hauser BOS 5.8 3.2 1.5
17 Brook Lopez LAC 5.7 2.2 0.8
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 3.0 1.1
19 Cam Christie LAC 4.6 1.5 1.0
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.4 3.5 0.7
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.3 3.4 0.9
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.3 1.8 0.7
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.1 2.6 0.9
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.0 2.0 0.6
25 Chris Paul LAC 2.9 1.2 3.2
26 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.6 2.3 0.4
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 2.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.