NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
123–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29263236123
MIN31292626112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 27 12 11
Aaron Gordon S 36 23 10 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 23 3 1
Jamal Murray S 39 23 6 12
Peyton Watson S 34 12 3 0
Bruce Brown 30 7 6 1
Jonas Valanciunas 12 6 6 2
Spencer Jones 17 2 0 1
Julian Strawther 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 38 26 6 8
Anthony Edwards S 38 26 8 6
Naz Reid 31 19 6 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 15 4 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 11 5 1
Mike Conley 25 5 1 2
Rudy Gobert S 23 4 6 0
Rob Dillingham 7 3 2 0
Jaylen Clark 11 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
19%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
7 Julius Randle MIN
11%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
0%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
13%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.7 12.0 11.2
2 Julius Randle MIN 26.6 7.0 6.3
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.6 4.6 3.7
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.4 5.1 6.1
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.2 5.5 2.1
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.5 5.1 2.9
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.9 3.9 3.8
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.9 10.5 1.5
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.7 5.7 2.1
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.2 2.3 1.8
11 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.0 4.9 1.1
12 Mike Conley MIN 7.4 2.3 3.9
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.1 4.0 1.4
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 4.1 1.5
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.6 2.1 1.0
16 Johnny Juzang MIN 5.1 1.9 0.6
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.0 1.3 2.1
18 Leonard Miller MIN 5.0 2.4 0.9
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.7 2.0 0.9
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.9 1.7 1.1
21 Bones Hyland MIN 3.4 0.8 1.1
22 Joan Beringer MIN 3.3 2.1 0.5
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.8 0.8
25 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.3 0.7
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.4 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.