NBA games

LAL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
119–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30352727119
MIL1816382395

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 41 9 6
Austin Reaves S 36 25 6 8
Deandre Ayton S 28 20 10 0
Jaxson Hayes 17 10 6 1
Dalton Knecht 34 9 6 1
Jake LaRavia S 37 4 6 1
Adou Thiero 5 4 1 0
Nick Smith Jr. 3 3 0 1
Maxi Kleber 25 3 1 3
Jarred Vanderbilt 8 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 32 10 5
AJ Green S 25 15 3 0
Gary Trent Jr. 24 13 0 1
Ryan Rollins S 27 10 1 3
Bobby Portis 18 8 6 0
Gary Harris 26 6 1 1
Mark Sears 3 4 1 0
Myles Turner S 30 3 8 1
Amir Coffey 3 3 0 0
Kyle Kuzma S 20 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
16%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
15%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
5 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
6 Myles Turner MIL
10%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
8 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
29%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.7 8.3 9.2
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.7 10.0 8.0
3 Austin Reaves LAL 28.6 4.9 8.4
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.8 4.1 6.3
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 17.6 9.4 1.7
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.4 5.0 2.2
7 Myles Turner MIL 13.7 5.8 1.9
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.9 4.9 2.8
9 Marcus Smart LAL 11.8 3.1 3.8
10 Bobby Portis MIL 10.2 4.6 1.6
11 AJ Green MIL 10.0 2.6 1.9
12 Cole Anthony MIL 9.9 3.5 4.7
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.4 2.0 2.0
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.7 2.8 1.1
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.7 5.7 1.8
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 4.0 1.1
17 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.5 1.5 1.4
18 Bronny James LAL 4.2 1.8 1.6
19 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.6 2.7 0.6
20 Gary Harris MIL 3.5 1.3 0.9
21 Mark Sears MIL 3.5 0.8 0.7
22 Jericho Sims MIL 2.6 2.3 0.7
23 Amir Coffey MIL 2.4 1.4 0.6
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.3 0.5
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 1.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.