NBA games

TOR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
129–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32303928129
IND29243226111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home IND
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 28 22 6 4
Jakob Poeltl S 26 22 9 1
Brandon Ingram S 30 19 5 2
Scottie Barnes S 32 14 11 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 12 4 3
Immanuel Quickley S 29 12 3 7
Collin Murray-Boyles 17 10 2 1
Gradey Dick 19 8 6 1
Jamal Shead 17 7 0 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 15 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 30 4 3
Andrew Nembhard S 31 22 4 5
T.J. McConnell 16 9 1 4
Jay Huff 16 8 3 0
Jarace Walker S 30 8 8 2
RayJ Dennis 5 7 0 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 30 7 6 0
Isaiah Jackson 19 6 6 1
Taelon Peter 13 5 3 4
Tony Bradley S 19 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
7 Tony Bradley IND
10%
8 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND
9%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
26%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.2 6.6 5.8
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.8 6.3 4.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 8.1 5.3
4 RJ Barrett TOR 19.4 4.6 4.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.0 4.1 6.0
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 16.6 2.5 6.3
7 Jarace Walker IND 12.2 4.9 3.4
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.4 7.7 1.8
9 Isaiah Jackson IND 9.4 6.8 1.4
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.9 3.5 1.7
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.8 3.6 1.3
12 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 2.1 1.8
13 Ben Sheppard IND 7.2 4.0 1.5
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.9 2.3 4.7
15 RayJ Dennis IND 6.4 2.3 2.4
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.1 5.3 1.2
17 Jay Huff IND 6.0 3.6 1.0
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 1.8 0.8
19 Tony Bradley IND 5.8 4.0 1.0
20 Monte Morris IND 5.0 1.9 1.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.5 1.5 0.6
22 Taelon Peter IND 4.1 2.2 1.4
23 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 3.9 1.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.