NBA games

OKC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
109–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30253222109
CHA3022182696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CHA
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 33 4 7
Chet Holmgren S 32 25 8 2
Ajay Mitchell 31 14 6 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 12 12 5
Cason Wallace S 30 10 2 4
Branden Carlson 17 7 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 22 3 4 1
Isaiah Joe 21 3 5 1
Ousmane Dieng 14 2 2 1
Alex Caruso 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 30 15 4 4
Moussa Diabate 24 13 11 4
Collin Sexton S 30 13 4 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 26 13 7 0
Tre Mann 21 10 2 1
KJ Simpson 18 9 1 5
Antonio Reeves 17 9 2 0
Kon Knueppel S 27 8 4 3
Sion James S 26 3 2 1
Pat Connaughton 16 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes driving layup (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC
9%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
15%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.1 5.0 7.3
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.0 6.2 3.9
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.9 6.2 3.5
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.5 7.5 2.4
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.7 4.1 4.2
6 Collin Sexton CHA 17.7 3.0 5.3
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 15.2 10.5 3.2
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 13.6 3.1 1.7
9 Tre Mann CHA 11.7 3.5 3.5
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.3 6.8 1.0
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.9 8.0 1.1
12 Sion James CHA 9.4 3.2 1.6
13 Cason Wallace OKC 9.3 3.0 2.3
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.5 3.3 1.3
15 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 2.4 2.3
16 KJ Simpson CHA 4.6 1.4 1.7
17 Branden Carlson OKC 4.3 2.7 0.8
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.9 2.1 0.7
19 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.6 1.7 0.7
20 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.9 1.1 0.6
21 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.7 1.3 0.6
22 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.6 2.0 0.6
23 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.4 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.