NBA games

MEM @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
100–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32292316100
CLE28262232108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CLE
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 26 5 2
Zach Edey S 25 13 7 0
Santi Aldama 25 12 11 2
Cedric Coward S 25 10 8 2
Vince Williams Jr. 27 8 4 5
Jaylen Wells S 24 8 2 0
Ja Morant S 6 7 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 23 6 0 3
Jock Landale 19 5 5 1
Cam Spencer 20 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 30 5 5
Evan Mobley S 35 22 13 4
Jarrett Allen S 26 16 6 2
Sam Merrill S 27 13 4 1
De'Andre Hunter S 32 9 3 3
Lonzo Ball 22 9 7 5
Dean Wade 24 4 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 13 3 3 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 18 2 4 1
Tyrese Proctor 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point shot (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
9%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Jock Landale MEM
6%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
6%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.8 5.2 6.8
2 Evan Mobley CLE 22.0 9.2 4.6
3 Ja Morant MEM 21.0 4.9 9.6
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE 20.2 5.0 3.9
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.0 5.9 2.0
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.8 8.9 2.3
7 Santi Aldama MEM 14.9 6.3 3.4
8 Cedric Coward MEM 14.2 6.5 3.6
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.6 2.4 2.8
10 Jock Landale MEM 12.5 5.4 2.3
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.4 3.8 1.6
12 Cam Spencer MEM 9.2 2.2 3.1
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.1 3.0 2.6
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 3.6 2.8
15 Lonzo Ball CLE 8.0 3.7 5.2
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.7 3.0 0.9
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.7 3.6 3.0
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 3.3 1.5
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.7 1.5 1.2
20 GG Jackson MEM 5.1 2.0 0.7
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.9 3.1 1.5
22 PJ Hall MEM 4.6 3.2 0.7
23 John Konchar MEM 4.1 2.5 1.0
24 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.8 2.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.