NBA games

ATL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
132–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL42382329132
UTAH33343619122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home UTAH
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 32 11 2
Jalen Johnson S 41 31 18 14
Vit Krejci 32 20 1 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 16 2 5
Luke Kennard 20 12 2 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 11 3 2
Mouhamed Gueye 15 8 2 1
Dyson Daniels S 27 2 2 3
Keaton Wallace 15 0 2 5
Asa Newell 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 40 7 2
Ace Bailey S 32 21 5 3
Keyonte George S 37 19 6 7
Isaiah Collier 25 10 5 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 10 10 8
Brice Sensabaugh 12 9 3 2
Kyle Filipowski 18 8 9 3
Kevin Love 15 3 3 4
Cody Williams 12 2 0 0
Svi Mykhailiuk S 25 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
11%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
9%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
18%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.3 5.9 2.4
2 Keyonte George UTAH 23.9 4.5 6.7
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.7 9.0 6.3
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.5 3.7 4.1
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.9 6.3 3.7
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.8 8.1 2.6
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.9 3.4 1.8
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.0 6.0 6.0
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.4 3.3 6.0
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.2 3.2 1.8
11 Luke Kennard ATL 10.0 2.7 2.1
12 Vit Krejci ATL 8.6 2.8 1.6
13 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 8.6 9.3 3.3
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.4 2.8 1.3
15 Ace Bailey UTAH 8.3 3.5 1.5
16 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.8 4.6 1.9
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.7 3.9 1.5
18 Asa Newell ATL 6.7 3.5 0.8
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.6 2.4 3.3
20 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.1 2.2 2.8
21 Cody Williams UTAH 5.5 1.8 0.9
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 5.1 1.5 0.7
23 Kevin Love UTAH 5.0 3.0 1.6
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.7 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.