NBA games

IND @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
98–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2329321498
PHX31393627133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHX
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 27 21 2 8
Pascal Siakam S 31 19 5 2
Tony Bradley S 17 10 3 0
Aaron Nesmith S 20 10 3 1
Isaiah Jackson 17 8 4 0
Ben Sheppard 22 6 6 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 27 6 7 0
T.J. McConnell 15 5 1 2
RayJ Dennis 3 3 1 1
Taelon Peter 9 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 29 33 5 7
Dillon Brooks S 28 32 1 0
Oso Ighodaro 26 17 7 0
Grayson Allen S 12 12 1 2
Collin Gillespie 23 10 4 1
Jordan Goodwin 23 10 9 5
Royce O'Neale S 23 5 3 3
Nick Richards S 15 4 1 0
Isaiah Livers 20 3 5 0
Ryan Dunn 19 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
5 Tony Bradley IND
11%
6 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
10 Jarace Walker IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
19%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.8 4.5 8.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 25.2 7.4 6.1
3 Grayson Allen PHX 20.1 3.9 4.7
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.6 3.6 3.0
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.7 4.4 1.7
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.2 2.4 5.8
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 14.0 5.7 3.9
8 Jarace Walker IND 12.2 5.2 3.5
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.1 5.1 2.1
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.0 3.8 5.0
11 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.4 6.4 1.3
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.4 3.0 2.2
13 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 3.6 1.5
14 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.9 4.8 1.1
15 Jay Huff IND 5.5 3.6 0.9
16 Monte Morris IND 5.4 1.8 1.9
17 Tony Bradley IND 5.3 3.5 0.9
18 RayJ Dennis IND 5.3 2.0 2.1
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.5 3.4 1.5
20 Nick Richards PHX 4.4 4.1 0.8
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.1 2.7 0.8
22 Taelon Peter IND 3.9 1.8 1.4
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.3 1.6 0.8
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.3 1.8 0.7
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.7 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.