NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
126–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR29382336126
CLE30243128113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 28 10 8
Immanuel Quickley S 32 25 1 6
Jakob Poeltl S 29 20 7 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 13 5 1
Brandon Ingram S 35 11 5 4
RJ Barrett S 27 9 9 4
Jamal Shead 24 8 2 7
Gradey Dick 21 6 0 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 13 4 3 2
Jamison Battle 6 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 31 6 6
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 22 18 6 0
De'Andre Hunter S 27 16 2 6
Sam Merrill S 27 12 2 3
Craig Porter Jr. 24 10 1 5
Tyrese Proctor 11 7 0 1
Evan Mobley S 35 7 9 3
Jarrett Allen S 21 6 8 0
Thomas Bryant 7 4 0 0
Dean Wade 21 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 9-foot two point shot (De'Andre Hunter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
9%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
6 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.6 4.8 6.1
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.9 6.3 4.6
3 Evan Mobley CLE 22.8 8.9 5.0
4 RJ Barrett TOR 21.3 4.6 4.3
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.7 7.7 5.0
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 19.5 4.9 3.3
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.2 4.8 6.1
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.5 8.4 2.3
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.1 2.3 2.4
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.8 7.8 1.6
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.0 3.3 1.6
12 Jamal Shead TOR 6.8 2.1 4.7
13 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 3.5 1.5
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.2 3.5 2.6
15 Gradey Dick TOR 6.0 2.1 0.8
16 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 5.8 3.6 1.4
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.6 1.6 1.3
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.4 2.6 0.8
19 Jamison Battle TOR 5.0 1.8 0.7
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.7 1.8 1.0
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.1 2.5 0.7
22 Luke Travers CLE 3.9 2.6 0.9
23 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.1 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.