NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
130–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN39244324130
LAC35332226116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 34 55 12 6
Aaron Gordon S 31 18 5 0
Jamal Murray S 33 15 5 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 12 1 3
Jonas Valanciunas 11 8 3 1
Christian Braun S 16 6 4 4
Julian Strawther 11 4 1 0
Spencer Jones 15 3 0 1
Jalen Pickett 3 3 1 1
Peyton Watson 22 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 30 23 8 5
Jordan Miller 26 22 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 32 18 9 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 20 11 0 6
Brook Lopez 16 10 1 1
Kobe Sanders 25 9 1 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 20 8 4 4
Nicolas Batum 22 6 2 3
Kris Dunn S 16 3 0 2
Cam Christie 6 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Christian Braun DEN
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 John Collins LAC
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.4 11.8 10.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.5 4.7 6.2
3 James Harden LAC 23.4 4.9 8.7
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.1 5.3 2.4
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.7 10.5 2.5
6 John Collins LAC 13.3 5.0 1.6
7 Christian Braun DEN 12.8 4.6 2.9
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.0 2.8 1.3
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.4 2.3 1.6
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 8.8 2.8 1.8
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.8 2.8 2.0
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.0 4.8 1.1
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.3 4.1 1.6
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.8 4.0 1.5
15 Brook Lopez LAC 6.6 2.5 0.9
16 Jordan Miller LAC 5.2 2.4 0.6
17 Cam Christie LAC 5.2 1.6 1.1
18 Julian Strawther DEN 4.8 2.4 0.9
19 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.7 2.0 1.7
20 Kobe Sanders LAC 4.6 0.9 0.8
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.4 2.7 0.9
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.3 1.1
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.7 2.9 0.9
24 Chris Paul LAC 3.4 1.2 3.5
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.2 0.4
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 1.4 0.5
27 Spencer Jones DEN 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.