NBA games

ATL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
133–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37293928133
SAC34122232100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home SAC
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 24 24 10 8
Onyeka Okongwu 21 21 3 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 15 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 22 14 6 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 13 4 6
Luke Kennard 21 13 3 2
Vit Krejci 21 11 3 4
Caleb Houstan 8 6 1 1
Asa Newell 8 5 1 0
Dyson Daniels S 27 5 6 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Ellis 31 20 0 1
Domantas Sabonis S 26 12 5 2
Devin Carter 22 11 6 3
Russell Westbrook S 22 10 2 3
Precious Achiuwa S 20 10 5 2
Nique Clifford 31 9 4 4
Dennis Schroder S 26 9 3 4
Maxime Raynaud 15 7 4 1
Doug McDermott 8 6 0 0
DeMar DeRozan S 19 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Dennis Schroder SAC
8%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
10 Keaton Wallace ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
38%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.3 8.8 5.5
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.3 3.8 3.1
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.8 3.5 3.7
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.3 6.8 3.4
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 6.3 6.3
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.6 11.7 4.1
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.5 3.9 1.9
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.4 8.6 2.6
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.9 3.7 5.7
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.0 6.4 5.8
11 Nique Clifford SAC 9.7 3.8 2.5
12 Luke Kennard ATL 9.5 2.6 2.2
13 Vit Krejci ATL 8.5 2.9 1.3
14 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 7.7 4.5 1.7
15 Drew Eubanks SAC 7.5 3.6 0.9
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.3 2.3 2.6
17 Keon Ellis SAC 6.1 2.3 1.1
18 Asa Newell ATL 5.7 3.4 0.6
19 Precious Achiuwa SAC 5.6 5.0 0.8
20 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.2 3.1 0.7
21 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.0 1.2 0.4
22 Dario Saric SAC 3.6 1.4 0.4
23 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 2.9 0.7 0.3
24 Devin Carter SAC 2.4 1.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.