NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
92–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL1820262892
OKC30403021121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 33 19 7 7
Dalton Knecht 19 16 2 1
Austin Reaves S 30 13 5 3
Rui Hachimura S 33 13 5 1
Marcus Smart S 28 9 1 0
Deandre Ayton S 26 6 5 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 6 9 2
Jake LaRavia 22 5 1 2
Maxi Kleber 8 3 4 0
Jaxson Hayes 14 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 30 5 9
Isaiah Joe 35 21 2 5
Ajay Mitchell S 26 14 3 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 11 8 0
Chet Holmgren S 20 11 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 15 10 2 1
Alex Caruso 17 10 4 3
Cason Wallace S 24 6 0 1
Jaylin Williams 20 6 7 4
Brooks Barnhizer 8 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
28%
2 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
6%
Layup
81%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 5.1 6.9
2 Luka Doncic LAL 28.9 8.5 8.3
3 Austin Reaves LAL 26.8 4.8 7.8
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.1 8.3 2.4
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.9 4.3 4.6
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.6 4.0 1.8
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 16.5 8.4 1.4
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 15.9 10.6 3.6
9 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.5 4.8 3.0
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.6 3.1 1.6
11 Marcus Smart LAL 11.2 2.7 3.5
12 Cason Wallace OKC 9.8 3.1 2.6
13 Alex Caruso OKC 6.7 2.2 2.2
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.6 5.0 2.0
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.4 2.5 0.9
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.2 5.5 1.6
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 4.5 1.2
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.3 2.3 0.8
19 Branden Carlson OKC 3.6 2.0 0.5
20 Bronny James LAL 3.5 1.4 1.5
21 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.2 1.3 0.7
22 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.5 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.