NBA games

PHX @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30333228123
DAL28252833114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DAL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 26 3 9
Grayson Allen S 33 23 5 3
Dillon Brooks S 31 18 2 4
Royce O'Neale S 28 13 6 4
Jordan Goodwin 20 13 6 2
Mark Williams S 26 10 4 2
Ryan Dunn 24 8 4 1
Nick Richards 10 6 7 1
Collin Gillespie 19 4 6 5
Oso Ighodaro 12 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 31 19 3 1
Brandon Williams S 33 17 5 9
Cooper Flagg S 34 16 6 6
Daniel Gafford S 27 15 9 0
Max Christie S 34 12 6 7
Naji Marshall 26 12 4 3
Jaden Hardy 12 8 1 0
P.J. Washington S 5 6 0 0
D'Angelo Russell 14 5 0 3
Moussa Cisse 15 4 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Brandon Williams makes two point shot (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
4 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Mark Williams PHX
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Brandon Williams DAL
9%
9 Max Christie DAL
8%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
19%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.5 4.6 7.2
2 Grayson Allen PHX 18.0 3.6 4.9
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 18.0 6.6 3.8
4 P.J. Washington DAL 17.5 8.7 2.9
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 16.7 3.8 2.6
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.3 5.4 3.5
7 Max Christie DAL 13.3 3.7 2.7
8 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.8 3.2 5.2
9 Naji Marshall DAL 11.5 4.5 2.4
10 Mark Williams PHX 11.3 9.9 1.2
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.5 3.9 4.8
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.0 5.0 1.8
13 Brandon Williams DAL 8.9 2.4 2.1
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.0 5.3 1.2
15 Klay Thompson DAL 7.4 2.9 1.8
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.8 2.7 2.0
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.8 3.6 1.4
18 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.6 3.0 0.7
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.5 0.7
20 Nick Richards PHX 4.2 3.8 0.7
21 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.9 3.9 0.6
22 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.8 1.9 0.7
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.8 2.1 0.6
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.5 2.4 0.8
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 3.2 1.9 0.6
26 Caleb Martin DAL 2.6 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.