NBA games

GS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
125–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS14354333125
SA28282836120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SA
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 46 5 5
Jimmy Butler III S 34 28 6 8
Moses Moody S 26 19 3 3
Al Horford 23 9 3 3
Draymond Green S 27 6 5 4
Brandin Podziemski 29 6 6 4
Buddy Hield 16 4 1 0
Gary Payton II 15 4 6 2
Will Richard S 22 3 1 1
Quinten Post 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 36 31 15 10
Stephon Castle S 31 23 10 10
Devin Vassell S 35 15 2 1
De'Aaron Fox S 36 13 5 5
Luke Kornet 22 12 0 1
Harrison Barnes S 25 11 2 0
Julian Champagnie 20 6 3 1
Keldon Johnson 24 6 9 1
Jeremy Sochan 6 3 3 1
Lindy Waters III 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
16%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
3 Stephen Curry GS
14%
4 Stephon Castle SA
13%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Quinten Post GS
7%
10 Moses Moody GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
29%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.7 12.6 5.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.5 3.9 4.5
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.8 5.9 8.2
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 18.7 5.4 4.8
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.8 6.7 3.1
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.6 3.9 2.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.1 4.3 3.5
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.0 3.0 2.4
9 Keldon Johnson SA 11.6 5.4 1.8
10 Luke Kornet SA 10.8 7.2 2.0
11 Moses Moody GS 10.7 3.0 1.6
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.1 5.0 1.7
13 Draymond Green GS 9.7 4.5 5.0
14 Will Richard GS 8.7 2.4 1.5
15 Quinten Post GS 7.3 4.2 1.2
16 Al Horford GS 6.4 3.5 1.5
17 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.4 2.4 1.4
18 Buddy Hield GS 6.1 1.6 1.7
19 Pat Spencer GS 5.8 2.0 2.0
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.1 3.1 1.2
21 Lindy Waters III SA 5.1 1.5 1.0
22 Carter Bryant SA 4.2 1.8 0.7
23 Gui Santos GS 3.3 1.6 0.6
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.0 0.9 1.0
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.0 1.7 1.4
26 Gary Payton II GS 2.8 2.3 0.9
27 Riley Minix SA 2.1 0.9 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.